Episode 1279: October, Continued
Date October 5, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the difficulties of postseason scheduling, both opening games of the NLDS, a better bullpen game by the Brewers, the Rockies’ decision to pitch to Mike Moustakas, what Christian Yelich is doing differently, the composition of the Braves and the depth of the Dodgers and Astros, and Chis Sale’s history of fading down the stretch, then answer listener emails about what would happen to a manager who consistently lost in the World Series, why teams haven’t shuffled their lineups in response to the opener, Madison Bumgarner (and every other hitting pitcher) vs. Chris Davis, how quickly stats could distinguish between Chris Davis and Khris Davis, and awarding fans for throwing balls at baserunners, plus a Stat Blast about 100-loss teams beating 100-win teams. Topics * Manager who cant win it all * Response to the opener * How bad was Chris Davis * Having the wrong Davis * A crazy negation to home runs Intro * Pink Floyd, "Free Four" Outro * The New Pornographers, "Three or Four" Banter * Post season schedule * Post season catch up * Christian Yelich * Astros and Braves playoff bullpens * Chris Sale Email Questions * David Barry (Patreon): Post-season hypothetical for you guys: How many consecutive seasons of losing in the World Series could a team go before that manager is fired? Follow up: is that number higher or lower than it was 15 years ago? (my guess is higher) * Jacob Mooney (Patreon): Feel free to take this question as a general guessing game if you've no way of knowing, but: The Orioles beat the Astros on the last day of the regular season and earlier they beat the Red Sox on game 158 of the season. That means that they twice, as a team with 100 losses logged already for the season, beat a team that had already logged 100 wins. How many times do you think this has ever happened? Has one 100-loss team ever beaten two 100-win teams after all three got over their thresholds? Is this the only Baltimore Orioles question you'll receive in the month of October? * Jenny: Since the recent wave of teams using an "opener", I'm wondering why teams haven't shuffled their lineups accordingly yet. It's my understanding that starting pitchers are known to each team ahead of the game, so why wouldn't Team A just put the 'bottom' of the order up in the first if Team B is starting and "opening" pitcher? It seems obvious since the number of teams using an opener is so large (considering how slowly baseball typically adopts such a drastic change). Are managers afraid to disrupt some sort of balance that happens when a lineup is pretty much the same for a whole season? What am I missing? * Jeff (San Francisco): In episode 1230, Ben responded to an email in which I asked whether Madison Bumgarner was a preferable as a hitter to the 2018 version of Chris Davis. I must admit to being a bit surprised when Ben definitively answered Davis. That was back in June. Chris Davis didn't get better in 2018. After a quick look at FanGraphs, it seems that Davis' 2018 stats are comparable to Bumgarner's career hitting numbers. In retrospect, would the Orioles have been better off Bumgarner had taken all of Davis' at bats in 2018? For the purpose of the question, assume that Bumgarner doesn't get hurt in Spring Training and hits without the rust of inaction. If not Bumgarner, is there another pitcher that could have been better? Thanks. * Matthew: I have a hypothetical question that I think you two are particularly well suited to answer: In this scenario, a contending team with a dysfunctional front office is approaching the trade deadline. This dysfunctional front office is lead by a GM with a reputation of being inattentive, but smart. This GM doesn't usually watch games, listen to fans, or personally meet players for fear of biasing his stat-based approach; instead, he just follows the game results and wheels-and-deals. After a trade deadline deal falls through at the last second, the GM tells his inept assistant to make a deal for an all-star player (lets call him Athletic Khris Davis), and make it quick. The inept assistant, recognizing the time constraint, doesn't ask for clarification and sets-out to make the trade as fast as possible. In doing so, the inept assistant trades for former-all-star player who has a similar name (lets call him Oriole Chris Davis). The coaches and players insert former-all-star into their line-up and roll with it, trusting that the GM is smart. The GM, following his management style, ignores fan protests and league ridicule. How long would it take the GM to finally realize that his team got Orioles Chris Davis instaed of Athletics Khris Davis assuming 2018 quality play if the GM only looked at box scores? What if the GM also looked at traditional stats (e.g., BA, RBIs, HRs, etc)? What if the GM also looked at advanced stats? I would presume the GM would, at first, think his newly acquired player was in an extended slump. But, eventually, the former-all-star being so bad (poor team play, poor stats, poor peripherals) would signal that the acquired player was not the intended trade target, right? * Ronak: I'm sure you have seen the extremely remarkable and improbable highlight of a Red Sox fan throwing a homerun ball from the stands at Giancarlo Stanton while he was rounding the bases. My question is, what would happen if a rule was added to baseball that ruled the batter as "out" if a fan successfully threw a ball directly at a runner from the stands? Would this strengthen the benefits of home field advantage given this would happen to away teams? Would batters be incentivized to run faster and more deceptively around the bases (with jukes and sidesteps)? Would teams try to put fans with stronger arms in the outfield stands? Obviously this would be a dangerous rule, but maybe it could be fun. StatBlast * The Orioles beating 100 win teams is 2 of 7 times that it has happened in history. Notes * The Brewers got 21 swings and misses through 8 innings in games one. * “Were not doing a Statblast today but this Chris Sale thought acts as one” Ben said, Jeff responded with “Dont say were not doing a statblast everyone will turn us off” * "Did the Buffalo Bills have the same coach when they lost thier consecutive Super Bowls?" Jeff, "Your asking the wrong guy" - Ben * They did a similar exercise to the blind Davis with Mike Trout in episode 988. * Don't ask Chris Sale "talk about" questions Links https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1279-october-continued/ Link to Jeff’s Yelich post Link to Ben’s Sale article Link to the .274 shirt Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes